Many people I meet ask me about my thoughts about the housing market under the new administration. I think we always need to keep in mind that our country’s housing market is really made up of hundreds of different housing markets. Some of those today are super hot and well beyond “normal” (normal meaning the average for the last 30 years), while most are recovering and some are still lagging. Also, we really don’t know, and as business people we need to be prepared for the worst but work towards what we think. My thoughts about housing for the next several years is that in most of the recovering markets, recovery will continue. On average, we are still not at “normal”. Just based on demographics, recovery should continue. I don’t think that there are many things that our federal government will do that will mute this recovery, but I also think that the recovery is mostly due to demographics versus supply, and the government mostly doesn’t impact that. In uncertain times dealing with national security, housing usually slows (think of the housing market before the fist gulf war). Usually once our country becomes engaged in conflict and the unknown becomes more known, housing recovers. So threatening conflict is one thing that our federal government can do to temporarily dampen housing. We all hope for continue growth in housing, but use caution about long term land/lot risk. What goes up, will come down.
Dan Wallach- CEO